Traffic Fatalities and Urban Infrastructure: A Spatial Variability Study Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Applied in Cali (Colombia)

The mobility plan and the road infrastructure works implemented, together with Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) connected bus system in its first two phases, generated optimistic expectations about reduction of lethal crashes city. This research studies relationship between investments transportation city distribution traffic fatalities. Although it is not strictly speaking an impact assessment, approach we propose performs geostatistical contrasts intervened non-intervened areas, using a geographically weighted model that attempts to spatial variability factors associated intra-urban crash rate, controlling for interventions some proxy indicators urban structure. findings reveal fatalities decreased areas both without intervention. Despite expectation reducing fatal injuries, differential effects were relatively small. risk was even increased critical points recurrent crashes. on Cali did correspond high social economic costs involved BRT work plan.